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Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
BSIC - MPAA - BOFI
Just a little post to mention all of our favorite micro's:
1) MPAA has doubled since we mentioned it here as a buy. I no longer own it. It is around $12.50.
2) BSIC was promoted by a newsletter group and hit $2.40 at one point. I sold all of my shares for between $2 and $2.25. The stock basically doubled in short order. I am looking for a pullback to enter.
3)BOFI has been slowly climbing - now up to $15/share. I still own quite a few shares.
A recap for the year: We have done quite well. We would have done fantastic had not been for shorting the general market in spots and/or having put options expire worthless. In 2011 I will be concentrating more on the micro-cap market: Going heavy long the quality micro-stocks and hedging those positions by shorting promoted stocks. Should be interesting.
1) MPAA has doubled since we mentioned it here as a buy. I no longer own it. It is around $12.50.
2) BSIC was promoted by a newsletter group and hit $2.40 at one point. I sold all of my shares for between $2 and $2.25. The stock basically doubled in short order. I am looking for a pullback to enter.
3)BOFI has been slowly climbing - now up to $15/share. I still own quite a few shares.
A recap for the year: We have done quite well. We would have done fantastic had not been for shorting the general market in spots and/or having put options expire worthless. In 2011 I will be concentrating more on the micro-cap market: Going heavy long the quality micro-stocks and hedging those positions by shorting promoted stocks. Should be interesting.
Wednesday, October 06, 2010
Sold my UNG calls as Natty Gas rises to $3.87 from $3.70
Looking for a slight pullback to jump back on the UNG call trade. On a side note our BOFI is finally getting back off the canvas after being beaten down with the financials. BOFI continues to be our largest holding. MPAA was up as high as 62% from when I posted about the undervalued autoparts maker a couple months ago...
Monday, October 04, 2010
Cashed in on some market shorts today...
Looking for a light bouce on tuesday and I will short into the ISM report. Will load up on more SDS calls. I am ultimately looking for S&P getting down to around 1080 (but will trade around positions daily).
(((Update - I did short into the ISM but got out when the market wanted higher. I still hold some SDS calls as a short term hedge. This market could collapse at any moment as the only thing holding it up is the Fed destroying the dollar by their anticipated QE2)
From Don Luskin's article...
The above chart and article discuss how some current policies (tax and tariff policy) are mirroring the 1930's. But what is even stranger is the near identical chart action seen above...
(((Update - I did short into the ISM but got out when the market wanted higher. I still hold some SDS calls as a short term hedge. This market could collapse at any moment as the only thing holding it up is the Fed destroying the dollar by their anticipated QE2)
From Don Luskin's article...
The above chart and article discuss how some current policies (tax and tariff policy) are mirroring the 1930's. But what is even stranger is the near identical chart action seen above...
Picked up 40 ung oct calls today...
Front month dropped to $3.70 this monday morning. Typical gas action with market pulling back after another weekend with no storms developing. Looking at the storage data, we are actually trending better than last year with storage levels down 4.6% from a year ago, yet the front month price of natty gas was close to $5 last oct this time last year.
Storage Reports ----
I am assuming we get a quick bounce in the front month with the first chill in the air as those furnaces fire up...
Storage Reports ----
I am assuming we get a quick bounce in the front month with the first chill in the air as those furnaces fire up...
Saturday, October 02, 2010
Traded ung calls 8 times during sept...
7 gains and 1 loss. The large bounce in nat gas is not happening yet this year. The inventory storage data coming out each week is showing builds compared to 5 year data, but less than one year ago levels. Futures are showing $4 gas out for many months. I find it hard to believe we will be paying $4 for gas in December and I still plan to keep one eye on weather and the other on UNG.
Lately, during the hurricane season, I have been long UNG calls into Friday where I would sell towards the end of day (it seemed people did not want to be short over a weekend for fear of a hurricane developing). I would generally buy back on Monday morning when gas would open lower. My one loss trading in September was on a Friday when I did not get a run-up and was left holding for a downer Monday. Since the hurricane season is ending, the trading during the week will most likely change. Now the eye is on weekly weather reports. The next week appears will be warmer than average: not good for higher nat gas prices.
Remember, even if you are a nat gas bull, UNG is as terrible long term hold. It decays somewhat every month when there is contango - and contango remains. It should be used as a trading vehicle only (or a long term short hedge against being long a natural gas producer).
Lately, during the hurricane season, I have been long UNG calls into Friday where I would sell towards the end of day (it seemed people did not want to be short over a weekend for fear of a hurricane developing). I would generally buy back on Monday morning when gas would open lower. My one loss trading in September was on a Friday when I did not get a run-up and was left holding for a downer Monday. Since the hurricane season is ending, the trading during the week will most likely change. Now the eye is on weekly weather reports. The next week appears will be warmer than average: not good for higher nat gas prices.
Remember, even if you are a nat gas bull, UNG is as terrible long term hold. It decays somewhat every month when there is contango - and contango remains. It should be used as a trading vehicle only (or a long term short hedge against being long a natural gas producer).
Wednesday, September 01, 2010
Nat gas front month at $3.75 on Sept 1st...
I started purchasing UNG calls today (started with some Sept 5's between $1.27 and $1.33). The contango is still somewhat of a problem here as the roll from Oct natural gas to Nov may eat some more UNG value. Still I like the idea of nat gas for a trade going from September to around October/November. Just remember that UNG is a terrible long term hold due to aformentioned contango...
Studying the historical prices for natural gas, you will see a significant bottoming and appreciation after Sept 1 through November in most years.
Studying the historical prices for natural gas, you will see a significant bottoming and appreciation after Sept 1 through November in most years.
Monday, August 23, 2010
Will most likely buy nat gas around Sept 1st...
In some past years, the first days of September have been good trading bottoms. More than likely it is because the anticipation of colder weather (or perhaps some tropical storm activity during the first week of Sept).
Call: Looking to buy UNG calls.
Call: Looking to buy UNG calls.
BOFI nice earnings - stock dropping like a rock...
BOFI is currently trading near $11/share. With new book value around $12.25 - a P/E of 5.5 and nice growth over the years (and looking forward) one really has to scratch ones head at this point. I truthfully did not think we would trade below book value since being added to the Russell 3000 - as I felt the higher visibility would keep a little more interest in the stock. At any rate, listening to the CEO talk about the new loan groups (especially the Jumbo unit from Thornburg members) you really have to be optimistic here. Not to mention the leverage we will attain from re-investing earnings going forward. Doing a back of the napkin calculation, since we made close to $5 million this quarter, we could leverage the balance sheet an additional $40 million. With that number (counting on about a 3% spread) you are looking at $1.2 million in additional earnings, just from leveraging up earnings (each quarter). Not to mention the additional capital which was raised near $13/share by Riley. I have been buying BOFI with zeal...
On a side note, I have been buying MPAA between $6.20 and $6.65. I sold some shares as high as $7.69. But this is another very undervalued play here (but in an industry that is currently on fire).
On a side note, I have been buying MPAA between $6.20 and $6.65. I sold some shares as high as $7.69. But this is another very undervalued play here (but in an industry that is currently on fire).
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